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☆ Oil prices set for sixth straight weekly fall as OPEC+ cuts underwhelm
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

REUTERS/Tatiana Meel/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsDec 1 (Reuters) - Oil prices extended losses on Friday, and looked set for a sixth straight week of declines, as voluntary oil output cuts agreed by OPEC+ producers fell short of market expectations. Saudi Arabia, Russia and other members of OPEC+ agreed to voluntary output reduction of 900,000 bpd in addition to extending 1.3 million bpd in production cuts already in place. Delegates had earlier discussed as much as 2 million bpd in new output curbs. Goldman Sachs said its December forecast for Brent was "moderately tilted" to the downside of its previously estimated range, calling the oil producers' move a "temporary response," and "difficult to implement." Separately, Brazil said on Thursday it would join the OPEC+ next year, though such a move wouldn't bind the south America's largest country to production cuts.

Persons: Tatiana Meel, Brent, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Laura Sanicola, Stephen Coates, Kim Coghill Organizations: REUTERS, OPEC, Brent, . West Texas, Thomson Locations: Nakhodka, Russia, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, Brazil, OPEC

One Russian banking source close to the Russian central bank said receiving revenue in a non-convertible currency with little value outside India was "pointless". They said, however, the problem remained of finding a viable alternative to the dollar, and that the problems affect buyers in Africa, China and Turkey which have become top buyers of Russian oil. The biggest issue, however, concerns India, which has been buying more than 60% of Russian seaborne oil, according to LSEG data and Reuters calculations. India's top refiner Indian Oil Corp (IOC.NS) is struggling to settle some payments, mainly for the purchase of Russia's light, sweet Sokol grade from the Sakhalin 1 project. From October, several UAE banks have tightened control over Russia-focused clients to ensure compliance with the price cap, according to five oil trading and bank sources.

Persons: Yang Mei Hu, Tatiana Meel, Ivan Nosov, Sokol, YUAN, Barbara Lewis Organizations: COSCO Shipping, REUTERS, U.S ., UAE, Reuters, Indian Oil Corp, Sokol, IOC, UAE dirhams, Thomson Locations: Nakhodka, Russia, Ukraine Russian, MOSCOW, DELHI, Ukraine, India, Russian, Hong, Africa, China, Turkey, Washington, Moscow, United States, Russia's, Sakhalin, UAE

☆ Exclusive: Greek shippers exit Russian oil trade as U.S. tightens price cap scrutiny
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

REUTERS/Tatiana Meel/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsMOSCOW/LONDON, Nov 23 (Reuters) - Three major Greek shipping firms have stopped transporting Russian oil in recent weeks in order to avoid U.S. sanctions now being imposed on some shipping firms carrying Russian oil, four traders told Reuters and shipping data showed. Greek shippers Minerva Marine, Thenamaris and TMS Tankers have stopped transporting Russia oil in recent weeks, the four traders said. The Greek shippers' exit from the trade followed tighter U.S. sanctions imposed on Russian oil shipments. The G7 countries introduced a price cap on Russian oil in late 2022, but had not previously enforced it. Russian oil trade has brought record revenues over the past year to the shippers who took the risk and stayed in the business.

Persons: Tatiana Meel, Thenamaris, Minerva, Jonathan Saul, Dmitry Zhdannikov, Eleftherios Papadimas, Susan Fenton Organizations: Nord, REUTERS, Minerva, TMS, Minerva Marine, Reuters, United Arab Emirates, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Nakhodka Bay, Nakhodka, Russia, LONDON, Asia, Turkey, East, Africa, South America, Moscow, Washington, OPEC, U.S, Baltic, India, Primorsk, Ust, Iran, Europe, UAE, Hong Kong, Seychelles, Ghana, Liberia, Cook, London, Athens

☆ Russia lifts gasoline export ban - energy ministry
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

It said it could reimpose export bans if necessary, adding that stocks of gasoline had risen to around 2 million metric tons. "A decision was made to terminate the temporary ban on the export of motor gasoline." Russia, the world's top seaborne exporter of diesel, introduced a ban on fuel exports on Sept. 21 in order to tackle high domestic prices and shortages. The government eased restrictions on Oct. 6, allowing the export of diesel by pipeline, but kept measures on gasoline exports in place. Diesel is Russia's biggest oil product export, at about 35 million metric tons last year.

Persons: Tatiana Meel, Vladimir Soldatkin, Andrew Heavens, Kevin Liffey Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Diesel, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Nakhodka Bay, Nakhodka, Russia, Soviet, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, OPEC

It also slightly raised its 2023 forecast for growth in global oil demand and stuck to its relatively high 2024 prediction. Last week, oil prices slid to their lowest level since July, hurt by concerns that demand could wane in in top oil consumers U.S. and China. A U.S. crackdown on Russian oil exports could potentially disrupt supply, supporting prices further. Iraq's oil minister expects to reach an agreement with the Kurdistan Regional Government and foreign oil companies to resume oil production from the Kurdish region's oilfields and resume northern oil exports through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline. Focal points for the market include the International Energy Agency's latest monthly oil market report later in the day.

Persons: Dun Jiao, Tatiana Meel, Leon Li, Emily Chow, Edwina Gibbs, Stephen Coates Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Brent, ING, Organization of, Petroleum, Strategic Petroleum Reserve, U.S . Treasury Department, Kurdistan Regional Government, of Commerce, International Energy, APEC, Markets, Thomson Locations: Nakhodka, Russia, Rights SINGAPORE, U.S, China, Washington, Moscow, Iraq, Kurdish, Turkey, Shanghai

☆ Oil prices edge up after OPEC says market fundamentals are strong
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

REUTERS/Tatiana Meel/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSINGAPORE, Nov 14 (Reuters) - Oil prices inched up on Tuesday after an OPEC report said market fundamentals remained strong and due to concerns supplies might be disrupted as the U.S. cracks down on Russian oil exports. Last week, oil prices slid to their lowest level since July, hurt by concerns that demand could wane in in top oil consumers U.S. and China. Iraq's oil minister expects to reach an agreement with the Kurdistan Regional Government and foreign oil companies to resume oil production from the Kurdish region's oilfields and resume northern oil exports through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline. Oil prices were also supported by a U.S. crackdown on Russian oil exports, potentially disrupting supply. Focal points for the market include the International Energy Agency's latest monthly oil market report later in the day.

Persons: Dun Jiao, Tatiana Meel, Emily Chow, Edwina Gibbs Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Brent, Organization of, Petroleum, ANZ Research, Kurdistan Regional Government, of Commerce, U.S . Treasury Department, Strategic Petroleum Reserve, International Energy, Energy, Thomson Locations: Nakhodka, Russia, Rights SINGAPORE, U.S, China, Iraq, Kurdish, Turkey, Washington, Moscow

China inflation data released on Thursday showed that October CPI fell 0.2% year on year, while PPI data fell 2.6% year on year. Earlier this week, customs data showed that China's total exports of goods and services contracted faster than expected, although the country's crude imports in October were robust. On the plus side for oil demand, China's central bank governor, Pan Gongsheng, said the country is expected to achieve its annual growth target of 5% for this year. U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 11.9 million barrels over the week to Nov. 3, sources said, citing American Petroleum Institute figures. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), however, has delayed release of weekly oil inventory data until Nov. 15 for a system upgrade.

Persons: Dun Jiao, Tatiana Meel, Brent, Pan Gongsheng, Andrew Hayley, Tom Hogue Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, PPI, Reuters, American Petroleum Institute, U.S . Energy Information Administration, Barclays, Thomson Locations: Nakhodka, Russia, Rights BEIJING, China, United States, Venezuela, American

☆ Exclusive: Russian fuel export ban to be lifted next week
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Russia, the world's top seaborne exporter of diesel, introduced a ban on fuel exports on Sept. 21 to tackle high domestic prices and shortages. The government eased restrictions on Oct. 6, allowing the export of diesel by pipeline, but kept measures on gasoline exports in place. Energy Minister Nikolai Shulginov on Wednesday said that Russia was considering lifting the export ban on some grades of gasoline. Another industry source said the ban would be lifted next week. "They promised to lift the exports ban next week.

Persons: Shun, Tatiana Meel, Nikolai Shulginov, Diesel, Alexander Novak, Guy Faulconbridge, David Goodman Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Reuters, Energy, Sunday, Thomson Locations: Nakhodka Bay, Nakhodka, Russia, Russian

A view shows the crude oil terminal Kozmino on the shore of Nakhodka Bay near the port city of Nakhodka, Russia August 12, 2022. Oil's rally comes along with gains across financial assets after the Fed maintained its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 5.25%-5.50% at its latest meeting on Wednesday. Iran, a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), produced around 2.5 million barrels per day of crude in 2022, according to U.S. energy data. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that the country's crude stocks increased as refiners undergoing seasonal maintenance restarted units more slowly than expected. But despite lower refining runs, U.S. gasoline stocks (USOILG=ECI) rose by 0.1 million barrels in the week to 223.5 million barrels, the EIA said.

Persons: Tatiana Meel, Jon Maier, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Stephanie Kelly, Muyu Xu, Lincoln Organizations: REUTERS, Oil, U.S . Federal Reserve, Brent, U.S, West Texas, Fed, Global, Iran's, Organization of, Petroleum, Bank of England, European Central Bank, U.S . Energy Information Administration, Thomson Locations: Nakhodka, Russia, Israel, Gaza, Iran, Europe, U.S

Reuters reported in July that Indian refiners began using yuan to pay for some oil from Russian sellers, while continuing to use dollars and dirhams to settle most of their Russian oil purchases. Indian refiners buy most of their Russian oil from traders, while making some direct purchases from Russian entities. State-run Indian Oil Corp (IOC.NS), the country's top refiner, has used yuan and other currencies to pay for Russian oil, Reuters reported previously. Private Indian refiners have continued to pay in yuan and other currencies for Russian oil imports, sources said, with most Indian purchases of Russian oil paid in dirham. Indian Oil, BPCL and HPCL and the country's oil and finance ministries did not immediately respond to Reuters' requests for comments.

Persons: Tatiana Meel, Nidhi Verma, Tony Munroe, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: REUTERS, European Union, Reuters, Gazprom Neft, Indian Oil Corp, Bharat Petroleum Corp, Hindustan Petroleum, Thomson Locations: Nakhodka Bay, Nakhodka, Russia, DELHI, India, Moscow, Ukraine, United States, dirhams, Gazprom, dirham, Hong Kong, China

☆ Growing tanker fleet, cheaper freight challenge Russian oil price cap
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-13 | by ( Jonathan Saul | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

It also means that enforcing the price cap will have a limited impact on Russian revenues. Had the oil price been above $60 at the time, sanctions would have severely disrupted Russian exports. However, the price for most Russian oil only rose above $60 in July, which meant traders, shipping companies and Russian exporters had months to prepare. So many vessels are willing to sail loaded with Russian oil that freight rates have fallen - effectively handing Russian producers even more revenues. Freight rates for Russian Urals crude shipments to Asia for October cargoes plunged to the lowest levels since the implementation of the price cap, traders said.

Persons: Shun, Tatiana Meel, Mike Salthouse, Sellers, ” Claire McCleskey, Jonathan Saul, Marguerita Choy Organizations: REUTERS, United Arab, Intelligence, Reuters, International Energy Agency, Shipping, U.S, Link, Thomson Locations: Nakhodka Bay, Nakhodka, Russia, LONDON, refiners, China, India, U.S, Turkey, United Arab Emirates, Moscow, Ukraine, Baltic, Asia, Saudi Arabia, Novorossiysk, East, Africa, Latin America, London, MOSCOW

TASS news agency cited Energy Minister Nikolai Shulginov as saying the government "at all levels" had been discussing partial permission for fuel exports. Europe could also fill some of the gap left by the Russia gasoline ban. Northwest European suppliers, which lost market share in West Africa to Russian supplies this year, could step in, FGE said. Since banning Russian fuel imports, Europe has been seeking suppliers elsewhere, including from the Middle East. As a result, traders said they expected Northeast Asian refiners in China and South Korea to boost diesel exports to Europe.

Persons: Tatiana Meel, Alexander Novak, Vortexa, Nikolai Shulginov, JP Morgan, FGE, Edmund Blair, Mark Potter Organizations: REUTERS, Traders, Kremlin, Kommersant, TASS, Analysts, FGE Energy, WHO, BE, European Union, Gulf, Diesel, Northwest, Competition, Thomson Locations: Nakhodka Bay, Nakhodka, Russia, LONDON, SINGAPORE, Soviet, United States, Ukraine, Europe, Brazil, Turkey, North, West, East, Gulf, gasoil, India, Africa, Kpler, U.S, Gulf Coast, America, West Africa, China, South Korea

☆ Russia may partially lift ban on diesel exports soon - Kommersant
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

REUTERS/Tatiana Meel/File photo Acquire Licensing RightsOct 4 (Reuters) - The Russian government is ready to partially lift its ban on diesel exports in coming days, the daily Kommersant reported on Wednesday, citing unidentified sources. The ban on gasoline exports will remain in force for now. Russian exports of diesel are the largest of all types of oil products. Russia's gasoline and diesel prices have continued to slide on the local exchange. Since the ban was introduced, gasoline prices have declined by almost 10%, while diesel prices plummeted by 23%.

Persons: Tatiana Meel, Alexander Novak, Novak, JP Morgan, Lidia Kelly, Vladimir Soldatkin, Simon Cameron, Moore, Kim Coghill Organizations: REUTERS, Kommersant, FGE Energy, Thomson Locations: Nakhodka Bay, Nakhodka, Russia, Russian, Melbourne, Moscow

☆ Russian oil sold to India at 30% above Western price cap, traders say
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-28 | by ( Nidhi Verma | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

India, which is the world's third biggest oil importer, has become the top buyer of seaborne Russian oil, mainly Urals, since 2022 after Western sanctions against Moscow. Alternatives are much more expensive and not easily available," a trader familiar with the Russian oil market said. Russian Urals oil typically gives higher yields of diesel, which accounts for about two-fifths of India's overall refined fuel consumption. The Western price cap on Russian oil allows buyers to use Western services such as shipping and insurance in the event that crude trades below $60 per barrel. Russian oil is also now being sold to customers in new markets like Brazil, the Indian source said.

Persons: Tatiana Meel, Brent, HPCL Mittal, Nidhi Verma, Alexander Smith, Elaine Hardcastle Organizations: REUTERS, Moscow, Board, Indian Oil Corp, Bharat Petroleum Corp, Hindustan Petroleum Corp, Reliance Industries Ltd, Nayara Energy, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Nakhodka Bay, Nakhodka, Russia, Ukraine MOSCOW, DELHI, India, Moscow, Saudi Arabia, Baltic, Mangalore, Russian, Turkey, China, Bulgaria, Brazil, New Delhi

☆ Oil prices climb as markets focus on supply tightness
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-27 | by ( Emily Chow | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

An aerial view shows oil tanks of Transneft oil pipeline operator at the crude oil terminal Kozmino on the shore of Nakhodka Bay near the port city of Nakhodka, Russia June 13, 2022. REUTERS/Tatiana Meel/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSINGAPORE, Sept 27 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose nearly $1 on Wednesday as markets focused on supply tightness heading into winter and a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy. Brent crude futures rose 86 cents, or 0.9%, to $94.82 a barrel by 0340 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures climbed 86 cents, or 0.9%, to $91.25. "Oil prices are overall relatively strong amid the current tightening of supply," said CMC Markets analyst Leon Li, however adding that price support from Russia and Saudi Arabia supply cuts may be limited through the year-end. "(Economic) Data from countries in Europe and the United States have recently weakened ... Oil prices in October may show a volatile trend as a whole.

Persons: Tatiana Meel, Cushing, Leon Li, Neel Kashkari, Arathy Somasekhar, Emily Chow, Sonali Paul 私 Organizations: Rights, Brent, U.S, West Texas, Organization of, Petroleum, ANZ Research, Russian Railways, Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank, of England Locations: Nakhodka, Russia, Rights SINGAPORE, U.S, Oklahoma, Cushing, Saudi Arabia, Europe, United States, Minneapolis, Houston, Singapore

An aerial view shows oil tanks of Transneft oil pipeline operator at the crude oil terminal Kozmino on the shore of Nakhodka Bay near the port city of Nakhodka, Russia June 13, 2022. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) climbed 36 cents, or 0.4%, to $90.02. The Fed on Wednesday maintained interest rates, but stiffened its hawkish stance, projecting a quarter-percentage-point increase to 5.50-5.75% by year-end. "The Fed stance and a strong labor market has driven equities and commodities lower, pressuring oil," said Kilduff. Oil prices remained supported by concern about tight supply globally entering the fourth quarter.

Persons: Tatiana Meel, Brent, refiners, Tamas Varga, Vargas, John Kilduff, Paul Carsten, Natalie Grover, Laura Sanicola, Trixie Yap, Sonali Paul, Jane Merriman, Alexandra Hudson, David Gregorio Our Organizations: . West Texas, . Federal, Fed, U.S ., U.S . Labor Department, Bank of England, Organization of, Petroleum, Thomson Locations: Nakhodka, Russia, Russian, ., New York, Norway's, Cushing, London

☆ Oil falls as US rate hike expectations offset tight supply outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( Trixie Sher Li Yap | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

An aerial view shows oil tanks of Transneft oil pipeline operator at the crude oil terminal Kozmino on the shore of Nakhodka Bay near the port city of Nakhodka, Russia June 13, 2022. REUTERS/Tatiana Meel/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSept 21 (Reuters) - Oil prices fell in early Asian trade on Thursday, after posting the largest fall in a month in the previous session, as U.S. interest rate hike expectations offset the impact of drawdowns in U.S. crude stockpiles. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) fell 70 cents, or 0.78%, to $88.96, the lowest since Sept. 14. The hawkish stance also led to the U.S. dollar surging to its highest since early March, placing downside pressure on oil prices. "This tightness, along with strong refinery margins (largely a result of tightness in middle distillates) suggests that oil prices are likely to see further strength in the short term," he said.

Persons: Tatiana Meel, Brent, refiners, Warren Patterson, Laura Sanicola, Trixie Yap, Sonali Paul Organizations: . West Texas, ING, U.S . Federal Reserve, Open Market, U.S, Energy, U.S . Energy Information Administration, American Petroleum Institute, ANZ, Cushing, Organization of, Petroleum, Thomson Locations: Nakhodka, Russia, Saudi Arabia

☆ Oil falls as rate hike expectations offset US stock draw
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( Trixie Sher Li Yap | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

An aerial view shows oil tanks of Transneft oil pipeline operator at the crude oil terminal Kozmino on the shore of Nakhodka Bay near the port city of Nakhodka, Russia June 13, 2022. REUTERS/Tatiana Meel/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSept 21 (Reuters) - Oil prices fell in early Asian trade on Thursday, after posting the largest fall in a month in the previous session, as U.S. interest rate hike expectations offset the impact of drawdowns in U.S. crude stockpiles. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) fell 71 cents, or 0.79%, to $88.95, the lowest since Sept. 14. The hawkish stance also led to the U.S. dollar surging to its highest since early March, placing downside pressure on oil prices. "This tightness, along with strong refinery margins (largely a result of tightness in middle distillates) suggests that oil prices are likely to see further strength in the short term," he said.

Persons: Tatiana Meel, Brent, refiners, Warren Patterson, Laura Sanicola, Sonali Paul Organizations: . West Texas, ING, U.S . Federal Reserve, Open Market, U.S, Energy, U.S . Energy Information Administration, American Petroleum Institute, ANZ, Cushing, Organization of, Petroleum, Thomson Locations: Nakhodka, Russia, Saudi Arabia

Chevron Chief Executive Mike Wirth also said he thinks oil will cross $100 per barrel in a Bloomberg News interview. Saudi Arabia and Russia this month extended a combined 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) of supply cuts to the end of the year. Saudi Arabia's energy minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman on Monday defended OPEC+ cuts to oil market supply, saying international energy markets need light-handed regulation to limit volatility. China, considered the engine of oil demand growth, is a key risk because of its sluggish post-pandemic economic recovery, though its oil imports have remained robust. "The high-for-longer mantra would ultimately have a negative impact on economic growth and would affect oil demand."

Persons: Tatiana Meel, Brent, WTI, Fiona Cincotta, Mike Wirth, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, Callum Macpherson, Tamas Varga, PVM's Varga, Arathy Somasekhar, Natalie Grover, Florence Tan, Sudarshan, David Goodman, Timothy Gardner Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Brent, U.S, West Texas, Citi, Monday, Chevron, Bloomberg, ANZ, XM, U.S . Federal, Thomson Locations: Nakhodka, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Ukraine, China, Saudi, Investec, Europe, Houston, London, Singapore

☆ Oil prices continue to rally on tight supply
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-18 | by ( Natalie Grover | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Oil tankers sail along Nakhodka Bay near the port city of Nakhodka, Russia August 12, 2022. China, considered the engine of oil demand growth, remains possibly the biggest risk because of its sluggish post-pandemic economic recovery. "Lack of protracted progress, nonetheless, will be viewed as a major setback on the demand side," said Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM. "The high-for-longer mantra would ultimately have a negative impact on economic growth and would affect oil demand." "The question is, will the Saudis continue to maintain the deficit given the risk that higher prices must surely, at some point, stimulate US shale (oil output)," Investec analyst Callum Macpherson said.

Persons: Tatiana Meel, Brent, WTI, Tamas Varga, PVM's Varga, Callum Macpherson, Natalie Grover, Florence Tan, Sudarshan, David Goodman Organizations: REUTERS, Brent, West Texas, XM, U.S . Federal Reserve, Thomson Locations: Nakhodka, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Ukraine, Europe, China, London, Singapore

☆ Russia's war in Ukraine
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-22 | by ( Ivana Kottasová | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +1 min

People who fled contested territory in Ukraine's eastern Donetsk region disembark at a railway station in the Russian port city of Nakhodka. Photo: Vitaliy Ankov/Sputnik/APAs Russia’s war on Ukraine grinds into a second year, some Ukrainians who fled the fighting and ended up in far flung parts of Russia are still unsure if they will ever be able to return home -- and whether they would be welcome when they get there. Ukraine describes these refugees as forcibly deported, though some Natalia says no one forced her to leave. “It was our decision,” she told CNN by phone from Russia’s far east, where she has resettled since arriving last spring. Over the course of many months, CNN has managed to reach a handful of Ukrainians like Natalia.

☆ Analysis: Oil rebound more likely this year, $100 a barrel possible, OPEC sources say
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-10 | by ( Alex Lawler | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

OPEC and OPEC+ do not publish oil price forecasts and do not have a price target. Officials and ministers from OPEC and OPEC+, are often reluctant to discuss the direction of prices on the record. Reuters spoke privately to five more OPEC country officials about the prospect of $100 oil. The IEA, which represents 31 countries including top consumer the United States, did not immediately reply on Friday to a request for comment on what $100 oil would mean for its members. In November, Birol said $100 oil was a real risk for the global economy.

☆ Exclusive: Russia sees sanctions impact on oil products, eyes crude export boost -senior source
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

[1/2] The oil products tanker Nord and a bulk carrier sail near the crude oil terminal Kozmino in Nakhodka Bay near the port city of Nakhodka, Russia, December 4, 2022. "The oil products' embargo will have a greater impact than the restrictions on crude oil," said the senior Russian source who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity the situation. The source said the sanctions will lead to more crude oil supplies from Russia, which lacks storage capacity for oil products. Its oil products exports averaged around 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2022, according to the International Energy Agency. Vedomosti also said Russian oil exports had risen by 1.2% in early January, while refining volumes had increased by 1.4%.

The ban is likely to create a diesel supply shortfall that Europe hopes to fill with Chinese fuel, some of which will be produced from Russian crude. China has raised its first batch of 2023 export quotas for refined oil products by nearly half from a year ago. "But without Chinese exports pushing swing barrels westward, Europe is unlikely to replace the 0.5 million bpd loss in Russian diesel exports come the embargo," Energy Aspects analysts said. Russia has long been the main diesel supplier for Europe, where refineries do not produce enough to meet domestic demand from its large diesel car fleet. Reuters GraphicsAn EU ban on Russian crude imports that took effect in December will be broadened to include refined fuels from Feb. 5.

The first, and most important, is that Australian coal will struggle to compete on price in China, especially thermal grades used to make electricity. Once the informal ban came into effect, Australia's share of China's imports dropped to zero by early 2021. China's imports of Russian thermal coal have remained solid, with some seasonal variations, since then and were 2.96 million tonnes in December, according to Kpler. The question is whether Australian coal miners can compete on price with Russian thermal supplies, and the answer is probably not. Add in a likely price disadvantage and it's hard to see Australian thermal coal charging back into China.

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